为研究气候变暖背景下四川省农业热量资源要素的变化趋势以及省内各个地区热量资源要素的变化特征。

本文利用四川省40个气象站点1961-2016年逐日气象数据，采用气候倾向率、M-K检验分析了热量资源要素的时间变化趋势，构建了基于经纬度、海拔高程的多元回归方程，并采用多元回归残差反距离订正法分析了热量资源要素的空间变化特征。

研究表明：1961-2016年四川省气温普遍增加，其中年平均气温、年均最低气温、≥0℃积温和≥10℃积温的平均气候倾向率分别为0.204℃/10a、0.267℃/10a、58.48℃/10a和61.49℃/10a。从空间变化看，全省年气温和积温的高值区间均由东南向西北扩大，其中川西北地区、攀西地区、川东盆区年平均气温和年均最低气温增加明显；川西平原≥0℃积温增加最明显，川东南地区≥10℃积温增幅最大。1961-2016年间四川省无霜期和喜温作物生长季天数普遍增多，其中无霜期增加区域以川西北高原、川西平原地区、川东北地区最为明显；川西南凉山州喜温作物生长季天数增加最为显著。

1961-2016年四川省气温普遍增加，无霜期和喜温作物生长季普遍延长，农业热量资源要素增加明显，其中热量资源增加的区域主要是四川盆地、攀西地区和川西北高原等地区。

This study attempts to identify the variation trend of agricultural thermal resources and characteristics of trend of all regions in Sichuan Province against the background of global warming.

Based on the daily meteorological data from 40 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2016, the thermal change characteristics of Sichuan Province were studied. We adopted the climatic tendency rate and the nonparametric Mann–Kendall statistical test to identify the temporal changes in the Sichuan Province thermal resources. Multiple regression equations for the thermal resource factors were constructed based on their longitude, latitude, and altitude. We also used a multivariate regression model with the residual modified by inverse distance weight interpolation to analyze the spatial variation of thermal resources.

The results showed that: the thermal conditions in Sichuan Province generally increased over the past 56 years and the annual average temperature, the annual average minimum temperature, the accumulated temperature above 0°C, and the accumulated temperature above 10°C had all increased by 0.204°C/10a, 0.267°C/10a, 58.48°C/10a, and 61.49°C/10a, respectively. The spatial distribution showed that the annual average temperature, the annual average minimum temperature, accumulated temperature above 0°C, and accumulated temperature above 10°C expanded from the southeast to northwest in Sichuan Province. The areas where the incremental changes in the annual average temperature and annual minimum temperature were the most significant were the northwest region of Sichuan Province, the Panzhihua-Xichang region, and the east region of Sichuan basin. The accumulated temperature above 0°C in the western Sichuan plain had increased significantly, while and the southeast region of Sichuan Province had the largest increase in accumulated temperature above 10°C. From 1961 to 2016, the frost-free period and the growing season for thermophilic crops became longer in Sichuan Province. The most obvious extended regions of the frost-free period were the northwest region, western Sichuan plain, and the northeast region of Sichuan Province. The area with significant extension of the growing season of thermophilic crops was Liangshan in the southwest region of Sichuan Province, where the thermal conditions for thermophilic crops improved gradually.

In the past 56 years, the temperature in Sichuan Province had generally increased, while the frost-free period and the growing season of warm crops were also extended. In general, agricultural thermal resources have increased in Sichuan Province and thermal resources have become more abundant in Sichuan basin, Pan-Xi region, and the northwest Sichuan plateau.