新城疫病毒通过候鸟途径跨境传入我国的风险定量评估
收稿日期: 2020-11-10
网络出版日期: 2021-03-11
基金资助
国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0500105);农业科技创新联盟建设-农业基础性长期性科研工作(Y2017LM08)
Quantitative Risk Assessment of Newcastle Disease Virus Crossing into China via Migratory Birds
Received date: 2020-11-10
Online published: 2021-03-11
为评估我国家禽经候鸟途径导致感染新城疫病毒的风险，为疫病发生提供预警，本研究基于情景树方法，以斑头雁、白枕鹤及宗头鸥3种候鸟做为传播媒介，以候鸟携带病毒概率、候鸟存活概率、候鸟在目标区域出现/停留概率、候鸟与家禽有接触概率、候鸟与家禽有效接触概率、免疫覆盖率及免疫保护效率7个因素为主要风险节点构建了新城疫病毒通过候鸟途径传入我国家禽的风险评估模型。针对情景树中的关键风险节点进行数据采集及评估，以县级行政区划为空间单元、月份为时间单元对新城疫病毒通过候鸟途径引入风险进行了定量分析。分析结果表明，每年1—2月以及11—12月相对高风险区域主要集中在我国南部沿海地区，3—4月以及9—10月，处于候鸟迁徙路线上的中部东部地区家禽感染新城疫病毒的相对风险较高；5—6月我国东北地区以及中部地区为家禽通过候鸟途径感染新城疫病毒的相对高风险地区，7—8月，在我国华东地区出现了一个集中的相对高风险区域。整体而言，我国东部及中部地区风险高于西部地区。敏感性分析显示疫苗免疫是降低候鸟将新城疫病毒传播至家禽风险的主要因素。该研究为以风险评估为基础的疫病监测提供技术方案，为基于风险预警的新发新城疫疫情防控提供了理论依据。
王世达, 魏丽丽, 王靖飞 . 新城疫病毒通过候鸟途径跨境传入我国的风险定量评估[J]. 农业大数据学报, 2020 , 2(4) : 55 -62 . DOI: 10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.200407
This study aimed to assess the risk of infection of Newcastle Disease Virus (NDV) infection in domestic poultry through migratory birds and to provide early warning for the occurrence of NDV. A scenario tree model was established in which a wild bird carrying NDV was introduced into a domestic poultry population. We used Anser indicus, Grus vipio and Larus brunnicephalus as the transmission medium. We also applied migratory bird NDV-positive rate, migratory bird survival, migratory bird appearance, migratory birds coming into contact with poultry, migratory birds coming into effective contact with poultry, immunization and vaccine protection efficiency as the main risk nodes. We conducted data collection and evaluation on the key risk nodes in the scenario tree, and conducted a quantitative analysis of the risk of NDV introduction through migratory birds with county-level administrative divisions as spatial units and months as time units. The results showed that in 2017 the main high-risk areas were in the southern coastal areas of China in January, February, November and December. Similar risk patterns were found in March, April, September and October, with the high-risk areas during these months mainly located in central and eastern China. From July to August, the relatively high-risk areas were in eastern China. These results suggest that the risk in the eastern and central regions of China is higher than in that in the western regions. Moreover, sensitivity analysis showed that vaccination was the most important factor for eliminating this NDV introduction risk by migratory birds. This study provides a technical solution for a risk-based disease surveillance and a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of emerging NDV outbreaks.
Key words： risk assessment; Newcastle disease; migratory bird; virus
| 1 | Ganar K, Das M, Sinha S, et al. Newcastle disease virus: Current status and our understanding[J]. Virus Research, 2014, 184:71-81. |
| 2 | Barman L R, Nooruzzaman M, Sarker R D, et al. Phylogenetic analysis of Newcastle disease viruses from Bangladesh suggests continuing evolution of genotype XIII[J]. Archives of Virology, 2017, 162(10):3177-3182. |
| 3 | Capua I, Alexander D J. Human health implications of avian influenza viruses and paramyxoviruses[J]. European Journal of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, 2004, 23(1):1-6. |
| 4 | Hawkes L A, Balachandran S, Batbayar N, et al. The trans-Himalayan flights of bar-headed geese (Anser indicus)[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of ences, 2011, 108(23):9516-9519. |
| 5 | 楚国忠,侯韵秋,张国钢等. 卫星跟踪青海湖繁殖地渔鸥的迁徙路线[J]. 林业科学, 2008(04):99-104. |
| 5 | Chu G Z,Hou Y Q,Zhang G G, et al. Satellite Tracking Migration Route of Great Black_Headed Gulls Breeding at Qinghai Lake，China[J]. Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2008, 44(4): 99-104. |
| 6 | 楚国忠,侯韵秋,张国钢等. 卫星跟踪青海湖繁殖水鸟的迁徙 [J].自然杂志, 2008(02):84-89. |
| 6 | Chu G Z,Hou Y Q,Zhang G G, et al. Satellite tracking of the migration routes of the Waterbirds Breeding in Qinghai Lake[J]. Chinese Journal of Nature, 2008(02):84-89. |
| 7 | Rahman A, Habib M, Shabbir MZ. Adaptation of Newcastle Disease Virus (NDV) in Feral Birds and their Potential Role in Interspecies Transmission[J]. Open Virology Journal, 2018, 12(Suppl-2, M3):52-68. |
| 8 | Sabra M, Dimitrov K M, Goraichuk I V, et al. Phylogenetic assessment reveals continuous evolution and circulation of pigeon-derived virulent avian avulaviruses 1 in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Africa[J]. Bmc Veterinary Research,2017,13(1):291. |
| 9 | Xie Z, Xie L, Chen A, et al. Complete Genome Sequence Analysis of a Newcastle Disease Virus Isolated from a Wild Egret[J]. Journal of Virology, 2012, 86(24):13854-13855. |
| 10 | Douglas1K O , Lavoie M C , Kim L M ,et al. Isolation and Genetic Characterization of Avian Influenza Viruses and a Newcastle Disease Virus from Wild Birds in Barbados: 2003–2004[J]. Avian Diseases, 2007, 51(3):781-787. |
| 11 | Dennis V, Umali, Hiroshi, et al. Surveillance of avian paramyxovirus in migratory waterfowls in the San-in region of western Japan from 2006 to 2012.[J]. The Journal of veterinary medical science / the Japanese Society of Veterinary Science, 2014, 76(3):423-430. |
| 12 | Cai S, Li J, Wong M T, et al. Genetic characterization and evolutionary analysis of 4 Newcastle disease virus isolate full genomes from waterbirds in South China during 2003-2007 [J]. Veterinary Microbiology, 2011, 152(1-2):46-54. |
| 13 | Jiaxin Li, Mengmeng Ling, Yixue Sun, et al. Characterization of Newcastle disease virus obtained from toco toucan [J]. Journal of Veterinary Science, 2020, 21(2):e19. |
| 14 | 任善会. 一株鸽源Class Ⅰ 新城疫病毒的分离鉴定及其遗传进化分析[D]. 西北农林科技大学,2016. |
| 14 | Ren S H. Identification and Phylogenic Analyses of A Pigeon-origin Class Ⅰ Newcastle Disease Virus[D]. Northwest A&F University, 2016. |
| 15 | Aron J L, Schwartz I B. Seasonality and period-doubling bifurcations in an epidemic model[J]. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 1984, 110(4):665-679. |
| 16 | Mur L, Martínez-López, Beatriz, Costard S, et al. Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union [J]. BMC Veterinary Research, 2014, 10(1):1-13. |
| 17 | Manabu O, Masayoshi K, Masae Y, et al. Characterizing the temporal patterns of avian influenza virus introduction into Japan by migratory birds [J]. Journal of Veterinary Medical ence, 2017, 79(5):943-951. |
| 18 | Diana, María, Herrera-Ibatá, et al. Quantitative approach for the risk assessment of African swine fever and Classical swine fever introduction into the United States through legal imports of pigs and swine products [J]. Plos One, 2017, 12(8) |
| 19 | Turan N, Ozsemir C, Yilmaz A, et al. Identification of Newcastle disease virus subgenotype VII.2 in wild birds in Turkey [J]. BMC Veterinary Research, 2020, 16(1): 25-34. |
| 20 | Farley J M, Romero C H, Spalding M G, et al. Newcastle disease virus in double-crested cormorants in Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi [J]. Journal of Wildlife Diseases, 2001, 37(4):808-812. |
| 21 | Zhang GZ, Zhao JX, Wang M. Serological survey on prevalence of antibodies to avian paramyxovirus serotype 2 in China. Avian Dis2007, 51(1): 137-139. |
| 22 | Lu S, Zhao Z, Zhang J, et al. Genetics, pathogenicity and transmissibility of novel reassortant H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses first isolated from migratory birds in western China [J]. Emerging Microbes & Infections, 2018, 7(1):6. |
| 23 | OIE World Organisation for Animal Health. Handbook on Import Risk Analysis for Animals and Animal Products. Quantitative Risk Assessment [DB/OL]. France: OIE, 2004. 126 p. |
| 24 | Brown V R, Bevins S N. A review of virulent Newcastle disease viruses in the United States and the role of wild birds in viral persistence and spread [J]. Veterinary Research, 2017, 48(1):77. |
| 25 | Characterization of Avian Influenza and Newcastle Disease Viruses from Poultry in Libya [J]. Avian Diseases, 2015, 59(3):422. |
| 26 | Harrison J L, Alders R G. An assessment of chicken husbandry including Newcastle disease control in rural areas of Chibuto, Mozambique.[J]. Tropical Animal Health and Production, 2010, 42(4):729-736. |
| 27 | Derksen T, Lampron R, Hauck R, et al. Biosecurity Assessment and Seroprevalence of Respiratory Diseases in Backyard Poultry Flocks Located Close to and Far from Commercial Premises [J]. Avian Diseases, 2018, 62(1):1-5. |
| 28 | Gale P, Sechi S, Horigan V, et al. Risk assessment for recrudescence of avian influenza in caged layer houses following depopulation: the effect of cleansing, disinfection and dismantling of equipment [J]. animal, 2020, 14(7):1536-1545. |
| 29 | Bavinck V, Bouma A, Boven M V, et al. The role of backyard poultry flocks in the epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H7N7) in the Netherlands in 2003 [J]. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 2009, 88(4):247-254. |
| 30 | Zeng X, Hua Y, Li X, Zhang Z. Monitoring influenza A virus and Newcastle disease virus in migratory waterfowls in Sanjiang natural reserve of Heilongjiang Province[J]. Wei Sheng Wu Xue Bao2008, 48(10): 1403-1407. |
| 31 | Yuan X, Wang Y, Li J, et al. Surveillance and molecular characterization of Newcastle disease virus in seafowl from coastal areas of China in 2011[J]. Virus Genes2013, 46(2): 377-382. |
| 32 | 武发菊,刘学荣,尚勇良,等. 新城疫疫苗的研究进展[J]. 中国畜牧兽医, 2011,38(10):145-148. |
| 32 | Wu F J, Liu X R, Shang Y L,et al. The Research Progress about Newcastle Disease Vaccination[J]. China Animal Husbandry & Veterinary Medicine, 2011, 38(10): 145-148. |
| 33 | Alcala-Canto Y, Alberti-Navarro A, Figueroa-Castillo J A, et al. Maximum Entropy Ecological Niche Prediction of the Current Potential Geographical Distribution of Eimeria Species of Cattle, Sheep and Goats in Mexico [J]. Open Journal of Animal ences, 2019, 09(2):234-248. |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |