基于时间序列分析模型的贵州省金针菇价格预测研究
收稿日期: 2026-01-22
录用日期: 2026-07-24
网络出版日期: 2026-06-26
基金资助
贵州省气象局省市联合基金项目《贵州省辣椒价格预测模型研究》(黔气科合SS[2023]19号);贵州省气象局省市联合基金项目《贵州省粮油类产品价格预警指标研究》(黔气科合SS[2023]18号);贵州省气象局创新团队“农业气象服务关键技术研究”(黔气科合TD〔2024〕6号)
Research on the Prediction of Enoki Mushroom Prices in Guizhou Province Based on Time Series Analysis Models
Received date: 2026-01-22
Accepted date: 2026-07-24
Online published: 2026-06-26
精确的短期价格预测对于我国食用菌类市场至关重要，而常见食用菌类价格波动对菇农的收入和生活质量产生了深远影响。本研究以贵州省金针菇价格为例，应用了ARIMA模型、AR模型和STL季节性分解方法，基于贵州省金针菇历史价格数据，通过探索性数据分析、参数优化及模型验证，深入探究了气候、季节及经济指标对价格的影响。实证分析结果显示：所建模型能够准确预测食用菌价格走势，为市场供需调节和生产规划提供了科学依据，促进了食用菌产业的健康发展与农民增收。
关键词： 金针菇价格; 时间序列; ARIMA模型; STL季节性分解方法
付芳婧 , 唐辟如 , 崔蕾 , 冷海燕 . 基于时间序列分析模型的贵州省金针菇价格预测研究[J]. 农业大数据学报, 2026 , 8(2) : 163 -173 . DOI: 10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.000118
Accurate short-term price forecasting is crucial for the edible mushroom market in our country, and the fluctuation of common edible mushroom prices has a profound impact on the income and quality of life of mushroom farmers. This study takes the price of golden mushrooms in Guizhou Province as an example, applies the ARIMA model, AR model, and STL seasonal decomposition method, based on the historical price data of golden mushrooms in Guizhou Province, through exploratory data analysis, parameter optimization, and model verification, it deeply explores the impact of climate, season, and economic indicators on prices. The empirical analysis results show that the model built in this study can accurately predict the trend of edible mushroom prices, providing scientific basis for market supply and demand regulation and production planning, and promoting the healthy development of the edible mushroom industry and the increase of farmers' income.
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