大数据促进农业生产效率的机制与效应研究——基于国家大数据综合试验区试点政策的准自然实验

doi:10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.000079

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文使用全国285个地级市2011至2020年的面板数据，将国家级大数据综合试验区政策作为准自然实验，运用广义双重差分模型、中介效应模型、空间杜宾模型，实证分析了大数据综合试验区建设对地区农业生产效率的影响。研究结果显示：（1）大数据综合试验区试点的设立显著提升了地区农业人均产值，有效提高其生产效率。（2）中介效应机制分析表明，国家级大数据试验区可以通过支持数字技术在农业领域的研发和应用，推进产业数字化，提高农业生产效率。（3）大数据综合试验区政策对农业生产效率具有负向空间交互效应，即大数据试验区的设立对周边地区农业发展具有虹吸效应。本研究为大数据综合试验区建设对地区农业发展的影响提供了重要的经验证据，可为数字经济扶农助农相关政策的制定提供参考。

关键词: 大数据政策, 农业生产效率, 准自然实验, 双重差分模型, 空间杜宾模型

Abstract:

This study utilizes panel data from 285 prefecture-level cities across China from 2011 to 2020, taking the national-level Big Data Comprehensive Experimental Zone policy as a quasi-natural experiment. Using a generalized difference-in-differences model, a mediation effect model, and a spatial Durbin model, we empirically analyze the impact of the establishment of Big Data Comprehensive Experimental Zones on regional agricultural production efficiency. The findings indicate the following: (1) The establishment of Big Data Experimental Zones has significantly enhanced regional agricultural output per capita, effectively improving production efficiency. (2) The mediation effect analysis reveals that the national Big Data Experimental Zones can advance agricultural productivity by promoting the research and application of digital technologies in the agricultural sector, thus driving industry digitalization. (3) The Big Data Experimental Zone policy demonstrates a negative spatial interaction effect on agricultural production efficiency, meaning that the establishment of such zones exerts a siphoning effect on agricultural development in neighboring regions. This study provides important empirical evidence regarding the impact of Big Data Experimental Zone development on regional agricultural advancement, aiming to inform policies related to supporting rural development through the digital economy.

Key words: big data policy, agricultural production efficiency, quasi-natural experiment, difference-in-differences model, spatial Durbin model

苗金芳, 马明瑞, 罗军林. 大数据促进农业生产效率的机制与效应研究——基于国家大数据综合试验区试点政策的准自然实验[J]. 农业大数据学报, 2025, 7(3): 331-342.

MIAO JinFang, MA MingRui, LUO JunLin. Research on the Mechanisms and Effects of Big Data in Promoting Agricultural Production Efficiency: A Quasi-natural Experiment of National-level Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone Policies[J]. Journal of Agricultural Big Data, 2025, 7(3): 331-342.

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	数据来源
数字经济水平	数字普及程度	每百人互联网用户数	互联网用户数 / 户籍人口
	数字经济相关从业人员	计算机服务和软件从业人员占比	信息行业从业人员数 / 年末单位从业人员数
	数字经济相关产出	人均电信业务总量	电信业务总量 / 户籍人口
	数字产业用户数	每百人移动电话用户数	移动电话年末用户数 / 户籍人口
	数字金融普惠发展	中国数字普惠金融指数	北大数字金融研究中心

变量类型	变量名称	变量符号	变量定义
被解释变量	农业生产效率	RJCZ	第一产业人均产值的对数值
核心解释变量	大数据综合试验区试点	Treat	试点地区设定为1,其他为0
控制变量	基础设施建设	GDZC	固定资产投资与GDP比值
	政府财政支出	CZZC	政府财政支出与GDP比值
	金融发展水平	JRFZ	金融机构各项贷款余额与GDP比值
	人力资本水平	RLZB	在校大学生人数的对数值
	对外开放水平	OPEN	外商直接投资额的对数值

变量	均值	标准差	中位数	最小值	最大值	观测值
RJCZ	11.23	0.7978	11.52	9.242	12.1	2523
Treat	0.0895	0.285	0	0	1	2850
GDZC	0.779	0.276	0.757	0.0872	2.197	1679
CZZC	0.203	0.123	0.176	0.0440	2.349	2763
JRFZ	1.034	0.661	0.844	0.118	9.622	2763
RLZB	10.61	1.319	10.56	5.442	14.08	2742
OPEN	12.15	1.685	12.28	2.587	16.61	1958

指标	模型I	模型II	模型III	模型IV	模型V	模型VI
treat_post	0.7523^***	0.5698^***	0.5324^***	0.5113^***	0.5050^***	0.5047^***
treat_post	(0.1141)	(0.1079)	(0.1097)	(0.1105)	(0.1087)	(0.1086)
GDZC		1.4258^***	1.2780^***	1.2724^***	1.1860^***	1.1793^***
GDZC		(0.1686)	(0.1644)	(0.1622)	(0.1625)	(0.1699)
CZZC			3.1736^***	2.7054^***	2.3392^***	2.3525^***
CZZC			(0.6877)	(0.7106)	(0.6511)	(0.6546)
JRFZ				0.1765	0.1463	0.1470
JRFZ				(0.1112)	(0.0982)	(0.0990)
RLZB					0.4158^***	0.4167^***
RLZB					(0.0958)	(0.0963)
OPEN						0.0043
OPEN						(0.0246)
_cons	6.3338^***	5.2613^***	4.8023^***	4.7364^***	0.5071	0.4486
_cons	(0.0028)	(0.1274)	(0.1599)	(0.1594)	(0.9927)	(1.0712)
R²	0.044	0.162	0.185	0.191	0.211	0.211
N	1490	1490	1490	1490	1490	1490

指标	模型I	模型II	模型III
指标	第一产业人均产值	数字经济水平	第一产业人均产值
treat_post	0.5047^***	0.0121^***	0.5077^***
treat_post	(0.1086)	(0.0042)	(0.0969)
DIG			3.4426^**
DIG			(1.3783)
控制变量	Yes	Yes	Yes
时间效应	Yes	Yes	Yes
地区效应	Yes	Yes	Yes
R²	0.211	0.019	0.212
N	1490	1471	1467