新城疫病毒通过候鸟途径跨境传入我国的风险定量评估

doi:10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.200407

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为评估我国家禽经候鸟途径导致感染新城疫病毒的风险，为疫病发生提供预警，本研究基于情景树方法，以斑头雁、白枕鹤及宗头鸥3种候鸟做为传播媒介，以候鸟携带病毒概率、候鸟存活概率、候鸟在目标区域出现/停留概率、候鸟与家禽有接触概率、候鸟与家禽有效接触概率、免疫覆盖率及免疫保护效率7个因素为主要风险节点构建了新城疫病毒通过候鸟途径传入我国家禽的风险评估模型。针对情景树中的关键风险节点进行数据采集及评估，以县级行政区划为空间单元、月份为时间单元对新城疫病毒通过候鸟途径引入风险进行了定量分析。分析结果表明，每年1—2月以及11—12月相对高风险区域主要集中在我国南部沿海地区，3—4月以及9—10月，处于候鸟迁徙路线上的中部东部地区家禽感染新城疫病毒的相对风险较高；5—6月我国东北地区以及中部地区为家禽通过候鸟途径感染新城疫病毒的相对高风险地区，7—8月，在我国华东地区出现了一个集中的相对高风险区域。整体而言，我国东部及中部地区风险高于西部地区。敏感性分析显示疫苗免疫是降低候鸟将新城疫病毒传播至家禽风险的主要因素。该研究为以风险评估为基础的疫病监测提供技术方案，为基于风险预警的新发新城疫疫情防控提供了理论依据。

关键词: 风险评估, 新城疫, 候鸟, 病毒

Abstract:

This study aimed to assess the risk of infection of Newcastle Disease Virus (NDV) infection in domestic poultry through migratory birds and to provide early warning for the occurrence of NDV. A scenario tree model was established in which a wild bird carrying NDV was introduced into a domestic poultry population. We used Anser indicus, Grus vipio and Larus brunnicephalus as the transmission medium. We also applied migratory bird NDV-positive rate, migratory bird survival, migratory bird appearance, migratory birds coming into contact with poultry, migratory birds coming into effective contact with poultry, immunization and vaccine protection efficiency as the main risk nodes. We conducted data collection and evaluation on the key risk nodes in the scenario tree, and conducted a quantitative analysis of the risk of NDV introduction through migratory birds with county-level administrative divisions as spatial units and months as time units. The results showed that in 2017 the main high-risk areas were in the southern coastal areas of China in January, February, November and December. Similar risk patterns were found in March, April, September and October, with the high-risk areas during these months mainly located in central and eastern China. From July to August, the relatively high-risk areas were in eastern China. These results suggest that the risk in the eastern and central regions of China is higher than in that in the western regions. Moreover, sensitivity analysis showed that vaccination was the most important factor for eliminating this NDV introduction risk by migratory birds. This study provides a technical solution for a risk-based disease surveillance and a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of emerging NDV outbreaks.

Key words: risk assessment, Newcastle disease, migratory bird, virus

中图分类号:

S858.39

王世达, 魏丽丽, 王靖飞. 新城疫病毒通过候鸟途径跨境传入我国的风险定量评估[J]. 农业大数据学报, 2020, 2(4): 55-62.

Shida Wang, Lili Wei, Jingfei Wang. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Newcastle Disease Virus Crossing into China via Migratory Birds[J]. Journal of Agricultural Big Data, 2020, 2(4): 55-62.

图/表 5

表1

图1

表2

不同月份新城疫病毒通过候鸟途径传入风险"

	风险值（P?106）
地区	1月	2月	3月	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	10月	11月	12月
上海	0.485435	0.490289	0.192	0.19008	0.192	0.19392	0.182	0.177	0.958	0.978	0.192	0.19008
云南	0.000471	0.000476	0.00209	0.002069	1.31E-05	1.32E-05	7.07E-05	1.46E-05	0.00133	0.00128	0.00872	0.008633
辽宁	0.000997	0.001007	0.0426	0.042174	0.0322	0.032522	0.029	0.000948	0.618	0.383	0.000997	0.000987
贵州	7.25E-05	7.32E-05	0.00331	0.003277	2.76E-05	2.79E-05	2.76E-05	2.76E-05	0.0161	0.0161	0.00872	0.008633
西藏	6.34E-08	6.4E-08	7.98E-07	7.9E-07	1.91E-08	1.93E-08	3.44E-09	9.02E-10	4.8E-08	4.8E-08	8.01E-07	7.93E-07
福建	0.008819	0.008907	0.0264	0.026136	0.000271	0.000274	0.00116	0.000199	0.0122	0.0121	0.0258	0.025542
甘肃	7.34E-06	7.41E-06	0.000213	0.000211	0.000171	0.000173	7.79E-05	5.02E-05	0.00627	0.00612	7.34E-06	7.27E-06
湖南	0.00156	0.001576	0.00436	0.004316	0.00104	0.00105	0.00104	0.00104	0.0506	0.0506	0.18	0.1782
湖北	0.000505	0.00051	0.00169	0.001673	0.000505	0.00051	0.000505	0.000505	0.0132	0.0132	0.000505	0.0005
海南	0.00026	0.000263	0.000106	0.000105	0.000106	0.000107	0.000106	0.000106	0.000106	0.000106	0.000106	0.000105
浙江	0.043322	0.043755	0.00191	0.001891	0.000869	0.000878	0.000869	0.000869	0.0434	0.0434	0.000869	0.00086
河北	0.002468	0.002493	0.0788	0.078012	0.00516	0.005212	0.00331	0.00331	0.411	0.21	0.00247	0.002445
河南	0.005717	0.005774	0.0227	0.022473	0.00583	0.005888	0.00888	0.00877	0.265	0.206	0.00572	0.005663
江西	0.001924	0.001943	0.0411	0.040689	0.00147	0.001485	0.000494	0.000234	0.187	0.079	0.0848	0.083952
江苏	0.051793	0.052311	0.149	0.14751	0.00757	0.007646	0.159	0.0615	1.13	0.414	0.00572	0.005663
新疆	3.99E-06	4.03E-06	3.99E-06	3.95E-06	3.77E-05	3.81E-05	0.000695	0.000694	2.68E-05	2.58E-05	3.99E-06	3.95E-06
广西	0.005737	0.005794	0.0037	0.003663	0.000136	0.000137	0.00022	0.000136	0.0393	0.00981	0.00409	0.004049
广东	0.691823	0.698741	0.0872	0.086328	0.039	0.03939	0.039	0.039	0.243	0.224	1.23	1.2177
山西	6.57E-05	6.64E-05	6.57E-05	6.5E-05	0.000971	0.000981	0.00517	0.00219	0.0317	0.0208	6.57E-05	6.5E-05
山东	0.001461	0.001476	0.0995	0.098505	0.0027	0.002727	0.852	0.595	1.31	0.586	0.00146	0.001445
安徽	0.005691	0.005748	0.316	0.31284	0.0228	0.023028	0.0262	0.00279	0.71	0.557	0.000967	0.000957
宁夏	1.37E-06	1.38E-06	3.46E-05	3.43E-05	6.91E-06	6.98E-06	0.00106	0.00098	2.07E-06	1.4E-06	1.37E-06	1.36E-06
天津	0.074837	0.075585	0.748	0.74052	0.0859	0.086759	0.0748	0.0748	0.479	0.479	0.0748	0.074052
四川	0.000385	0.000389	0.0244	0.024156	0.000334	0.000337	0.000334	0.000334	0.0897	0.0897	0.0118	0.011682
吉林	0.000172	0.000174	0.00563	0.005574	0.0732	0.073932	0.0104	0.000314	0.171	0.111	0.000172	0.00017
北京	0.043983	0.044423	0.218	0.21582	0.044	0.04444	0.044	0.044	0.467	0.22	0.044	0.04356
内蒙古	3.83E-07	3.87E-07	9.63E-06	9.53E-06	5.14E-05	5.19E-05	0.000139	6.59E-05	0.000315	0.00018	3.83E-07	3.79E-07
黑龙江	0.000182	0.000184	0.007964	0.007885	0.010063	0.010164	0.128255	0.017539	0.14825031	0.122966343	0.000182	0.00018
青海	1.66E-06	1.68E-06	8.16E-05	8.08E-05	0.001632	0.001648	8.77E-05	1.98E-06	0.00166281	0.00166278	1.66E-06	1.65E-06
陕西	0.000613	0.000619	0.08074	0.079933	0.473762	0.4785	0.027234	0.001154	0.502224513	0.070933007	0.000613	0.000607
重庆	0.11656	0.117725	0.535149	0.529797	0.11656	0.117725	0.11656	0.11656	0.11623302	0.11623302	0.11656	0.115394

表2

图2

图3

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	描述	数据来源	评估方法说明
Pa	候鸟携带病毒概率		Pert（min，most likely，max）
Pb	候鸟存活概率		Beta（a，b）
Pc	候鸟在目标区域出现/停留概率		Pert（min，most likely，max）
PR	候鸟与家禽有接触概率		Beta（R，1-R）
C	养殖量	统计年鉴
M	土地面积	统计年鉴
R	养殖密度		C/M
T	散养户数量	统计年鉴
N	养殖户数量	统计年鉴
PM	候鸟与家禽有效接触概率		Pert（min，most likely，max）
PU	疫苗覆盖率		Pert（min，most likely，max）
PY	疫苗保护效率		Pert（min，most likely，max）