Journal of Agricultural Big Data >
Analysis on Transmission Mechanism of Short-Term Fluctuation of Vegetable Prices: An Example Study of Pak Choi in Shanghai
Received date: 2020-07-25
Online published: 2020-10-30
In order to figure out the transmission mechanism of short-term fluctuation of vegetable prices, scientifically formulate measures to slow down frequent fluctuation of short-term price of vegetables, and reduce market risk of production chain, supply chain, and sales links in the vegetable industry chain.
Taking Shanghai pak choi as an example, this paper studies the transmission mechanism of short-term fluctuations of vegetable prices by using weekly data, including production price, wholesale price, and retail price. This paper studies the short-term volatility transmission mechanism of Shanghai vegetable prices by using a market-chain cooperated model, which is composed of multiple econometric models.
This study has four main findings. First, there is a high correlation among the production price, the wholesale price, and the retail price of pak choi in Shanghai from 2014 to 2018. The three prices are showing a trend of simultaneous increase and decrease, and the first difference of the three price variables are all stationary sequences. Second, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the production price, the wholesale price, and the retail price of pak choi in Shanghai. After being disturbed by short-term fluctuations, the long-term equilibrium relationship among the production price, the wholesale price, and the retail price will be affected, while the intensity of the error correction is 82.4%. Third, Granger causality test results show that the wholesale price of pak choi in Shanghai affects both the retail and the production price, and the production price also affects the retail price. The results of the variance decomposition show that the production price and the retail price are most affected by their own impact, while the wholesale price is mainly affected by the production price and its own price. Fourth, the results of the impulse response curve analysis show that there is no block from the production price to the wholesale price to the retail price, but there is a one-week block from the wholesale price to the production price, from the retail price to the wholesale price, and from the retail price to the production price. On the basis of the results of this research, we determined that the wholesale price of pak choi in Shanghai is relatively stable, and this stability plays a key role in the supply chain of pak choi. Therefore, we suggest strengthening the stable supply and price supervision of vegetables in the wholesale market.
Juan Yang, Tingting Qian, Xiuguo Zheng, Jingyin Zhao, Yeying Xu . Analysis on Transmission Mechanism of Short-Term Fluctuation of Vegetable Prices: An Example Study of Pak Choi in Shanghai[J]. Journal of Agricultural Big Data, 2020 , 2(3) : 31 -41 . DOI: 10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.200304
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