基于大数据的我国小麦市场价格波动特点分析——以山东省为例

doi:10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.200309

农业大数据学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 2 ›› Issue (3): 75-83.doi: 10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.200309

基于大数据的我国小麦市场价格波动特点分析——以山东省为例

张晓艳¹(), 孟丽², 王丽丽¹, 刘锋¹, 刘佳佳³, 卢德成¹()

^1.山东省农业科学院科技信息研究所，济南 250100
^2.中华人民共和国农业农村部信息中心，北京 100125
^3.中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业农村部农业信息服务技术重点实验室，北京 100081

收稿日期:2019-06-12 出版日期:2020-09-26 发布日期:2020-10-30
通讯作者: 卢德成 E-mail:239491965@qq.com;571090504@qq.com
作者简介:张晓艳，女，博士，研究员，研究方向：农产品监测预警；E-mail：239491965@qq.com
基金资助:
农业农村部农业信息服务技术重点实验室开放基金课题(SAAS-AII NYXXJSF-W2019-005);国家重点研发计划“黄淮海东部小麦-玉米周年光温水肥资源优化配置均衡丰产增效关键技术研究与模式构建”(2017YFD0301004)

Analysis of the Price Fluctuation Characteristics of China’s Wheat Market Using Big Data: A Case Study of Shandong Province

Xiaoyan Zhang¹(), Li Meng², Lili Wang¹, Feng Liu¹, Jiajia Liu³, Decheng Lu¹()

^1.S&T Information Technology Institute, Jinan 250100, China
^2.Information Center of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100125, China
^3.Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2019-06-12 Online:2020-09-26 Published:2020-10-30
Contact: Decheng Lu E-mail:239491965@qq.com;571090504@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

小麦是我国三大主要粮食作物之一，为保障我国口粮安全，国家在关注小麦面积和产量的同时，小麦价格也引起政府高度重视，粮食价格的稳定，关系到国民经济发展和社会的稳定。随着粮食市场化改革的逐步深入，小麦价格逐渐呈现一定周期变化，因此，掌握小麦市场价格变化规律，通过市场波动特点对小麦等粮食市场进行政策干预具有一定的研究意义。研究发现，国内小麦销区价格与山东普麦价格变化趋势基本一致，因此，本文在研究我国麦价的变动特点时，以山东省为例进行。研究基于时间序列分解的方法，对我国小麦第二大主产省山东的2009—2019年小麦实际价格变动特点进行了识别，研究发现山东小麦价格显示出直线上涨后平稳略下降的长期走势，且存在较明显的周期波动。在剔除物价水平因素后，研究区间内小麦价格总体上可分为三个最为明显的价格波动阶段，波动周期平均长度为44个月，山东小麦价格波动受季节因素的影响显著，同时受国家政策的影响。国家在进行生产及收储环节宏观调控时，依据小麦市场自身波动规律的前提下，应充分考虑小麦市场价格随全社会经济发展规律的变化趋势，然后再对小麦等粮食市场进行宏观调节，允许麦价在合理区间内变动。从发展思路角度分析，国家应逐步推进小麦托市收购政策改革，进一步完善粮食生产及收储方面的配套政策，同时加强农业监测预警研究。

关键词: 小麦价格, 波动周期, 时间序列分析, 发展思路

Abstract:

Wheat is one of the three major grain crops in China. To ensure the safety of our country's rations, the state monitors the area and yield of wheat, as well as the price. The stability of the price of grain is related to the development of the national economy and social stability. With the gradual deepening of grain market-oriented reform, the price of wheat presented a period of change. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the forces governing price changes in the wheat market and to use the characteristics of market fluctuations to control the price of wheat and other grains. We found that the trend of the change in wheat price in China was nearly identical to that in Shandong Province. Therefore, this paper took Shandong Province as an example to study the characteristics of wheat price change in China. Using the time-series decomposition method, we analyzed the characteristics of the monthly actual price of wheat in 2009–2019 in Shandong Province. We found that the wheat price in Shandong Province showed a long-term trend of straight-line rising and then steadily declining with obvious periodic fluctuation. After removing commodity price level, the change of wheat price in Shandong could be divided into three periods of fluctuation with an average length of 44 months each. The wheat price in Shandong Province could be affected by seasonal factors and also national policy. A macroadjustment could be conducted for the wheat market by using wheat market fluctuation rules. We suggest that the state should fully consider the wheat price trend along with the law of economic and social development, and adjust the wheat and other grain markets in accordance with the periodic fluctuation law of the wheat market price, so as to allow the wheat price to change within a reasonable range. From a development perspective, the state should promote the reform of the wheat minimum purchase price policy, gradually improve the supporting policies of grain production, and strengthen research on agricultural monitoring and early warning.

Key words: wheat price, fluctuation period, time series analysis, development perspective

中图分类号:

F323.7

张晓艳, 孟丽, 王丽丽, 刘锋, 刘佳佳, 卢德成. 基于大数据的我国小麦市场价格波动特点分析——以山东省为例[J]. 农业大数据学报, 2020, 2(3): 75-83.

Xiaoyan Zhang, Li Meng, Lili Wang, Feng Liu, Jiajia Liu, Decheng Lu. Analysis of the Price Fluctuation Characteristics of China’s Wheat Market Using Big Data: A Case Study of Shandong Province[J]. Journal of Agricultural Big Data, 2020, 2(3): 75-83.

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	时间区域	持续时间（月）	上涨（月）	波峰	下跌（月）	峰谷
第一周期	2009.01-2012.06	42	26	2011.03	16	2010.06
第二周期	2012.07-2016.06	48	24	2014.02	24	2015.10
第三周期	2016.07-2019.12	42	27	2017.04	15	2019.06

基于大数据的我国小麦市场价格波动特点分析——以山东省为例

Analysis of the Price Fluctuation Characteristics of China’s Wheat Market Using Big Data: A Case Study of Shandong Province

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