大数据技术在猪肉价格预测与调控上的探索与应用

doi:10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.230121

Abstract

Abstract:

China is a country of large hog production and pork consumption. Fluctuations in pork prices directly affect the interests of hog farmers and residents' diets. Prediction of the future trend of pork prices and scientific control of pork prices plays an important and practical role in promoting the stable and healthy operation of hogs and pork industry of China. This article studies the national pork market price trend. Firstly, pork supply prediction model based on the number of live hog and breeding sows is built according to the biological cycle and continuity features of hog production, which can predict pork production in the next 10 months. Secondly, taking advantage of the obvious seasonal cycle fluctuations in pork demand caused by my country's pork consumption habits, the STL time series decomposition method is used to decompose the monthly seasonal fluctuation trend from the pork transaction data to predict the monthly pork demand. Thirdly, based on the law of supply and demand in the pricing model, the relationship model of the pork price and the ratio between pork supply and demand is constructed to predict pork price in the next 10 months and calculate the price of pork supply and demand equilibrium. The relative error of pork price prediction is about 10% by using pork-related data from the Agricultural Products Market Information Platform system of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in 2022. When the estimated future pork supply and demand deviates, the model can adjust the pork supply by regulating the number of breeding sows, the import volume and the delivery volume, thereby regulating the future pork price trend. This study provides ideas and methods to adjust future pork price trends by adjusting the core factors that affect pork supply. This study aims to assist relevant government departments in properly and timely regulation of pork supply on the basis of scientifically predicting pork supply and demand and future price trends, so as to balance the supply and demand of pork and maintain the price of pork within a reasonable range of balanced supply and demand.

Key words: Supply forecasting, Demand forecasting, Equilibrium of supply and demand, Pork price forecasting and regulation

JIN Yuze, JIA Xinwei, LAI Wangfeng, ZHOU Hongli, CHEN Naihe, LI Tao. Exploration and Application of Big Data Technology in Pork Price Prediction and Regulation[J].Journal of Agricultural Big Data, 2023, 5(1): 126-134.

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References 15

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序号	数据名称	数据单位	数据粒度	数据时间范围
1	猪肉批发价格	元/千克	月度	2016年1月—2022年4月
2	生猪出场价格	元/千克	月度	2016年1月—2022年4月
3	能繁母猪存栏量环比	%	月度	2019年8月—2022年4月
4	能繁母猪存栏量	万头	季度末时点数	2017年3月—2022年4月
5	生猪存栏量	万头	季度	2017年3月—2022年4月
6	生猪出栏量	万头	季度累计数	2017年3月—2022年4月
7	生猪定点屠宰量	万头	月度	2009年1月—2022年4月
8	猪肉产量	万吨	季度累计数	2017年3月—2022年4月
9	猪肉进口量	吨	月度	2016年1月—2022年4月
10	投放量	万吨	不固定	2016年—2022年4月
11	猪肉年总消费量	万吨	年度	2016年—2022年4月
12	农贸市场电子结算猪肉交易量	千克	日度	2016年—2022年4月

预测月份	预测的猪肉产量
2021年1月	383.35
2021年2月	369.03
2021年3月	386.75
2021年4月	411.50
2021年5月	396.42
2021年6月	415.45
2021年7月	433.31
2021年8月	427.59
2021年9月	454.10
2021年10月	471.81
2021年11月	497.50
2021年12月	503.47

预测月份	猪肉产量（万吨）	投放与进口量（万吨）	预测的需求量（万吨）	供应/需求量	预测价格（元/千克）	实际价格（元/千克）	价格预测误差（%）
2021年5月	399.05	36.61	467.94	0.93	19.15	20.75	7.7
2021年6月	439.93	34.44	448.07	1.06	15.63	16.59	5.8
2021年7月	438.82	35.17	416.89	1.14	13.96	16.04	13.0
2021年8月	465.62	27.88	423.71	1.16	13.44	15.48	13.2
2021年9月	501.62	20.92	429.62	1.22	12.55	13.31	5.7
2021年10月	604.57	19.71	468.46	1.33	10.86	12.08	10.1
2021年11月	529.69	20.33	477.09	1.15	13.66	17.96	24.0
2021年12月	579.09	16.71	525.15	1.13	14.01	17.57	20.3
2022年1月	500.53	20.00	545.08	0.95	18.40	15.50	18.6
2022年2月	506.04	20.00	425.68	1.24	12.24	13.48	9.2
2022年3月	510.09	20.00	425.79	1.24	12.10	12.91	6.3
2022年4月	510.09	20.00	446.52	1.19	13.04	13.92	6.3

Exploration and Application of Big Data Technology in Pork Price Prediction and Regulation

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