Journal of Agricultural Big Data >
Exploration and Application of Big Data Technology in Pork Price Prediction and Regulation
Received date: 2022-07-05
Online published: 2023-05-16
China is a country of large hog production and pork consumption. Fluctuations in pork prices directly affect the interests of hog farmers and residents' diets. Prediction of the future trend of pork prices and scientific control of pork prices plays an important and practical role in promoting the stable and healthy operation of hogs and pork industry of China. This article studies the national pork market price trend. Firstly, pork supply prediction model based on the number of live hog and breeding sows is built according to the biological cycle and continuity features of hog production, which can predict pork production in the next 10 months. Secondly, taking advantage of the obvious seasonal cycle fluctuations in pork demand caused by my country's pork consumption habits, the STL time series decomposition method is used to decompose the monthly seasonal fluctuation trend from the pork transaction data to predict the monthly pork demand. Thirdly, based on the law of supply and demand in the pricing model, the relationship model of the pork price and the ratio between pork supply and demand is constructed to predict pork price in the next 10 months and calculate the price of pork supply and demand equilibrium. The relative error of pork price prediction is about 10% by using pork-related data from the Agricultural Products Market Information Platform system of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in 2022. When the estimated future pork supply and demand deviates, the model can adjust the pork supply by regulating the number of breeding sows, the import volume and the delivery volume, thereby regulating the future pork price trend. This study provides ideas and methods to adjust future pork price trends by adjusting the core factors that affect pork supply. This study aims to assist relevant government departments in properly and timely regulation of pork supply on the basis of scientifically predicting pork supply and demand and future price trends, so as to balance the supply and demand of pork and maintain the price of pork within a reasonable range of balanced supply and demand.
JIN Yuze, JIA Xinwei, LAI Wangfeng, ZHOU Hongli, CHEN Naihe, LI Tao . Exploration and Application of Big Data Technology in Pork Price Prediction and Regulation[J]. Journal of Agricultural Big Data, 2023 , 5(1) : 126 -134 . DOI: 10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.230121
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