基于大数据的我国小麦市场价格波动特点分析——以山东省为例

doi:10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.200309

Abstract

Abstract:

Wheat is one of the three major grain crops in China. To ensure the safety of our country's rations, the state monitors the area and yield of wheat, as well as the price. The stability of the price of grain is related to the development of the national economy and social stability. With the gradual deepening of grain market-oriented reform, the price of wheat presented a period of change. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the forces governing price changes in the wheat market and to use the characteristics of market fluctuations to control the price of wheat and other grains. We found that the trend of the change in wheat price in China was nearly identical to that in Shandong Province. Therefore, this paper took Shandong Province as an example to study the characteristics of wheat price change in China. Using the time-series decomposition method, we analyzed the characteristics of the monthly actual price of wheat in 2009–2019 in Shandong Province. We found that the wheat price in Shandong Province showed a long-term trend of straight-line rising and then steadily declining with obvious periodic fluctuation. After removing commodity price level, the change of wheat price in Shandong could be divided into three periods of fluctuation with an average length of 44 months each. The wheat price in Shandong Province could be affected by seasonal factors and also national policy. A macroadjustment could be conducted for the wheat market by using wheat market fluctuation rules. We suggest that the state should fully consider the wheat price trend along with the law of economic and social development, and adjust the wheat and other grain markets in accordance with the periodic fluctuation law of the wheat market price, so as to allow the wheat price to change within a reasonable range. From a development perspective, the state should promote the reform of the wheat minimum purchase price policy, gradually improve the supporting policies of grain production, and strengthen research on agricultural monitoring and early warning.

Key words: wheat price, fluctuation period, time series analysis, development perspective

CLC Number:

F323.7

Xiaoyan Zhang, Li Meng, Lili Wang, Feng Liu, Jiajia Liu, Decheng Lu. Analysis of the Price Fluctuation Characteristics of China’s Wheat Market Using Big Data: A Case Study of Shandong Province[J].Journal of Agricultural Big Data, 2020, 2(3): 75-83.

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	时间区域	持续时间（月）	上涨（月）	波峰	下跌（月）	峰谷
第一周期	2009.01-2012.06	42	26	2011.03	16	2010.06
第二周期	2012.07-2016.06	48	24	2014.02	24	2015.10
第三周期	2016.07-2019.12	42	27	2017.04	15	2019.06

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Analysis of the Price Fluctuation Characteristics of China’s Wheat Market Using Big Data: A Case Study of Shandong Province

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